Objective counterfactual analysis: Re-evaluating risk from North Atlantic hurricanes

NOAA Science Seminar Series

Title: Objective counterfactual analysis: Re-evaluating risk from North Atlantic hurricanes

Speakers: Tom J. Philp, Maximum Information/London School of Economics


Sponsors:  NOAA / OAR / Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML)

Seminar Contact: Shirley Murillo webinar host, shirley.murillo@noaa.gov

Remote Access: https://meet.goto.com/523560829

Abstract: 
Downward counterfactual analysis – or estimating how our observed history could have been worse – is increasingly being used by the re/insurance industry to quantify the potential impacts of previously unseen catastrophic events. In the case of North Atlantic Hurricanes, an example downward counterfactual could be "what would losses have been if Hurricane Matthew (2016) had followed one of its early forecast paths and made a double landfall in Florida?" While these downward counterfactuals are useful for site-specific adaptation strategies, the focus on downward (i.e., "worse-only") scenarios precludes us from assigning probabilities to the occurrence of these scenarios.

Here it is hypothesized that combined upward and downward counterfactual analysis (i.e., how history could have been either better or worse) may allow us to obtain novel information about historical events' probability of occurrence. To test the hypothesis, we create 10,000 counterfactual North Atlantic Hurricane histories from unrealized reforecast data for the period 1985-2016 and compare the statistics to our observed history. While in this formative experiment, the counterfactual histories show systematic under-prediction of US landfall risk, the results still point to an improved understanding of relative risk of landfalls along the US coastline. It is hoped this talk will allow others to attach to the concept and evolve methods appropriately to remove biases; this will ultimately help to better predict and manage the risk of high-impact hurricane landfalls on the US coastline. 

Slides / Recordings / Other materials: Recording will be made available shortly after the webinar at: https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/seminars/

Subscribe to the NOAA Science Seminar weekly email: Send an email to OneNOAAscienceseminars-request@list.woc.noaa.gov with the word `subscribe' in the subject or body. See https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/star/NOAAScienceSeminars.php

(Tom J. Philp, Maximum Information/London School of Economics)