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Urban Climatic-Analog Mapping for North American Cities in the Late 21st Century

February 25, 2019

City skyline in North America
By the 2080s, the climate of North American urban areas will feel substantially different from, and in many cases completely unlike, contemporary climates found in the western hemisphere north of the equator. (University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science)

SE CASC Researcher and NC State University PI Rob Dunn has co-authored a paper, released in Nature Communications Journal on 12 February 2019. The publication titled “Contemporary climatic analogs for 540 North American urban areas in the late 21st century” was developed from several SE CASC supported projects including: Integrating the Effects of Global and Local Climate Change on Wildlife in North America, Tree Eaters: Predicting the Response of Herbivores to the Integrated Effects of Urban and Global Change, and Consequences of Urbanization and Climate Change on Human and Ecosystem Health. The lead author on the publication is Matthew C. Fitzpatrick, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science.
The results from Fitzpatrick and Dunn’s research has garnered significant media response and is a great resource for conceptualizing climate information in urban areas at current and future time scales. Their research, focused on the use of climate-analog mapping and combined with a new interactive web application, serves as a resource in helping improve the public understanding of potential future climate conditions. By utilizing climate-analog mapping, the authors determined that the climate of most urban areas will have changed significantly by the late 21st century. Climate-analog mapping, which consists of statistically matching the expected future climate of one location to the current climate of another location, was applied to 540 North American urban areas. The climate in 2080 in some urban areas is expected to resemble the climate of other areas that are located hundreds of kilometers away. For example the climate analog for Washington, D.C. in 2080 indicates that the climate will be similar to Greenwood, Mississippi.
Climate Analog Mapping for 2080 in North America
Distance and direction to the best climatic analog. Arrows point from each urban area (filled circles) to the location of the best contemporary climatic analog for that urban area’s climate in the 2080s based on the ensemble mean of 27 projections for a RCP4.5 and b RCP8.5. Shading indicates the initial bearing from each urban area to its best contemporary climatic analog. View full size image here. (Fitzpatrick and Dunn)

The University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science issued a news release focusing on the research from this publication. A link to the news release, the publication, and the web application can be found below.
The publication Contemporary climatic analogs for 540 North American urban areas in the late 21st century can be viewed here.
The web application can be accessed here.
The original news release from the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science can be viewed here.