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Improving Scenarios of Future Patterns of Urbanization, Climate Adaptation, and Landscape Change in the Southeast

Project Information

Principal Investigator(s): Ross Meentemeyer, Center for Geospatial Analytics, NC State University
Project Completion: April 2023
Implements Science Plan Theme: Impacts, Exposure
Cooperators: Georgina Sanchez (Center for Geospatial Analytics, NC State University), Adam Terando (USGS Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center)

“…enormously useful to us and our partners and help address data inequities in the Caribbean…”

Key Points

  • Developed a model to project increases in urban growth and flood hazards
  • Provided insights into the potential threat of urban growth on natural lands
  • FUTURES 3.0 model is freely accessible to allow researchers and decision-makers to use it in their own analyses

Overview

There is an increasing demand for urban spaces as our population continues to grow. This leads to a land use change from natural and rural areas to urbanized ones. This change is one of the most significant, lasting changes we can make to the environment. The Southeast has seen rapid population growth in recent decades. But, this region is also vulnerable to climate change, especially along its coast. Many people currently live in these vulnerable coastal areas. Coastal communities face rising sea levels and increased flood risks, and in time, this could  make people want to move to safer inland areas, leading to more land use change 

This project studied population dynamics in the Southeast US. We focused on the potential movement of people away from coastal and flood-prone areas. We developed a unique land change model called FUTURES 3.0. This model can project both urban growth and increases in flood hazard due to climate change. The model then projects the human response to flooding. It does this in a spatially interactive manner, meaning that what happens in one location can affect others. FUTURES 3.0 is freely accessible. This allows researchers and decision-makers to use it for their own analyses. 

We also created scenarios of future urbanization patterns across the Southeast US. These “what-if” scenarios provide valuable information. They can inform natural resource decision-makers, regulatory agencies, and land managers. They help us understand the costs and benefits of different urbanization scenarios. This is crucial for managing wildlife and habitats. We can better manage urbanization through effective land management. We must be proactive in protecting valuable ecosystems and at-risk species. This information can also support land use planning and decision-making by providing estimates of future flood exposure for infrastructure.

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