SE CASC Science Seminar – Insights from a National Scale and Holistic Approach to Map Estuarine Vulnerability to Projected Change in Water Quality

Seminar Title: Insights from a National Scale and Holistic Approach to Map Estuarine Vulnerability to Projected Change in Water Quality

Speaker: Lise Montefiore (NC State University/Natrx)

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Overview:
Considered the “nurseries of the sea”, estuaries are unique ecosystems that provide valuable assets to national and local economies. However, their integrity and the socio-economic services they provide are differentially threatened by adverse effects of anthropogenically-driven local and global change (e.g., land-use change, climate change, sea level rise).

Few vulnerability assessments have integrated land-based drivers. Besides climate change, land-use and land-cover (LULC) is also expected to influence the runoff and nutrient characteristics of coastal watersheds and downstream estuaries. The present study developed a holistic approach to quantify estuarine vulnerability to water quality change under future climate and LULC projections, specifically with regards to nutrient loads. The approach was applied to estimate the vulnerability of 112 US estuarine systems to TN and TP loads. Results and implications of the research will be discussed in the seminar.