Project Information

Proposed Project Completion: Completed
Principal Investigator(s): Sarah Spiegler, NC Sea Grant, NC State University
Project Cooperator(s):
Len Balthis, NOAA NCCOS
Christine Buckel, NOAA NCCOS
Renee Collini, Mississippi State University
Trevor Meckley, NOAA NCCOS
Implements Science Plan Theme: Adaptation

Key Points

• Improved available information for coastal resource managers
• Improved scientific modeling accuracy by creating standardized methods for the retrospective analysis process
• Developed trust and connections within the marsh modeling community

Overview

Salt marshes are important landscapes for coastal communities. Salt marshes provide habitat for many animals, like shrimp and fish, and reduce flooding of homes and businesses. Sea level rise will affect salt marshes, but we don’t know exactly how. Knowing how sea level rise will change salt marshes helps us make better management decisions.

There are many scientific models that make projections about how salt marshes will change in the future. Each model uses a different approach, so their projections are different from one another. Comparing the models’ projections to real-life observations is an important step. This tests the performance of models across different situations, improving their utility to coastal resource managers. Until recently, we couldn’t check these salt marsh models because we didn’t have enough observations from the field.

We held a workshop with the leading marsh modelers from the U.S. and developed a way to conduct a “retrospective analysis.” This would mean running all the models using the same inputs and the same starting year from the past. We would then compare each model to the current state of marshes.

The SE CASC-funded part of the project is complete, but work continues today. The project has hosted many conversations between land managers and marsh modelers. This helps each group understand the values and priorities of the other. This is another step toward completing an accessible retrospective analysis. Resource managers have many management questions, and some models will be better depending on the question. This project will help managers decide which model to use in different situations.

This project’s science plan theme is adaptation. Being able to choose the most relevant model will allow managers to make more informed decisions. These decisions help us maintain the health of marshes as they adapt to climate impacts like sea level rise.

View a webinar recording summarizing the project: