Tree Eaters: Predicting the Response of Herbivores to the Integrated Effects of Urban and Global Change
Project Information
Project Timeline: September 2015. This project expands on work initiated under Integrating the Effects of Global and Local Climate Change on Wildlife in North America. This project is now completed.
Principal Investigators:
Rob Dunn, North Carolina State University
Steve Frank, North Carolina State University
Implements Science Theme: 4: Ecological research and modeling
Key Points
- Focused on urban natural areas and highlighted the heat island effect
- Researched climate change impacts on the often-understudied field of forest entomology
- Identified subsets of insects likely to become common pests as warming continues
Overview
Climate in the southeastern U.S. is predicted to change at a slower rate than other parts of North America. But, urbanization is changing wildlife populations and habitat availability. This includes changes to insect populations in forests, which are an important factor in tree health. This project studied the effect of global warming on both beneficial insects and pests of trees.
We used urban warming as a proxy for global warming. Many cities have already warmed as much as they were expected to by 2050 or even 2100 due to the heat island effect. We developed models that project how warming influences insects in cities in the Southeast, as well as the region as a whole. We were also able to predict how tree health will respond to these changes in insect communities. We then compared our results to data from herbarium specimens. Many insects can be found on these specimens. This showed that the effects of urban warming match those of climate change through time. Our results show that a subset of pests is likely to get far worse with warming, and this effect is likely to be most pronounced in the Southeast.