Project Information

Project Timeline: June 2011-July 2014. This project was expanded in Tree Eaters: Predicting the response of herbivores to the integrated effects of urban and global change. This project has been completed.
Principal Investigator(s):
Rob Dunn (NCSU, Biology)
Steve Frank (NCSU, Entomology)
Nick Haddad (NCSU, Biology)
Nadia Singh (NCSU, Genetics), and other researchers.

Key Points

• Researched unique climate impacts that could disproportionately affect natural resources near urban areas
• Projected shifts in both beneficial and pest insects in urban forest ecosystems due to climate change
• Integrated urbanization as a factor in climate change models and associated projections

Overview

Climate in the southeastern U.S. is predicted to change at a slower rate than other parts of North America. But, urbanization is changing wildlife populations and habitat availability. This includes changes to insect populations in forests, which are an important factor in tree health. This project studied the effect of global warming on both beneficial insects and pests of trees. 

We used urban warming as a proxy for global warming. Many cities have already warmed as much as they were expected to by 2050, or even 2100, due to the heat island effect. We developed models that project how warming influences insects in cities in the Southeast, as well as the region as a whole. We were also able to predict how tree health will respond to these changes in insect communities. We then compared our results to data from herbarium specimens. Many insects can be found on these specimens. This showed that the effects of urban warming match those of climate change through time. Our results show that a subset of pests is likely to get far worse with warming, and this effect is likely to be most pronounced in the Southeast.