Spring 2018 Global Change Fellow
Statement of purpose:
I am a third year PhD student working with Prof. Sankar Arumugam in the Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering. I am interested in stochastic hydrological modeling that aims at efficiently using climate information in water resources management.
Description of research:
My research falls under the spectrum of Hydrology and Water Resources modeling. I am particularly interested in statistical hydrology, Hydroclimatology, climate-informed hydrologic predictions and water-energy nexus. Part of my research is dedicated towards combining water and energy systems using a simulation based optimization technique to develop equivalent reservoir models for the seasonal to yearly planning of multipurpose systems on a large spatial scale. I work on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) streamflow prediction using global climate model outputs. Most of the water resources management decisions are made at S2S time scale, but reliable hydrologic predictions are not available at this time scale under the existing scientific techniques. My current research focuses on developing S2S reservoir inflow forecasts for reservoir network using non-homogeneous hidden Markov Model (NHMM). The main contribution of my present research lies in developing a multisite model with NHMM where multi time scale climate information is accounted for in a hierarchical framework and forecasts at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scale are generated. By identifying the role of relevant climate predictors in inflow forecasts at different lead time, I am trying to comment on uncertainty propagation at different temporal scales. An improved understanding of climate conditions from water resources operation and management perspective has implications in a broader societal behavior under the influence of climate change. My research falls under ‘Science Theme 3: Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources’ of the SE CSC strategic plan.